It’s been a productive year thus far…

I’ve been out of pocket for awhile on this blog, but it’s fir a good reason. I’ve been writing my butt off! Below are four manuscripts published in the last few months, all of which I was a part of… I’ll like the work speak for itself.

Taylor The Economics of Ecological Restoration and Hazardous Fuel Reduction Treatments in the Ponderosa Pine Forest Ecosystem
by M H Taylor, A J Sanchez Meador, Y S Kim, K Rollins, and H Will
Abstract: In this article, we develop a simulation model of the benefits and costs of managing the ponderosa pine forest ecosystem in the southwestern United States. Using the model, we evaluate and compare the economic benefits and costs of ecological restoration and hazardous fuel reduction treatments. Both treatment approaches increase the expected number of low-severity wildfires, which can promote postfire rehabilitation. Hazardous fuel reduction treatments are likely to reduce expected wildfire suppression costs, but not enough to offset the costs of implementing treatments. Conversely, ecological restoration treatments do not necessarily reduce expected wild-fire suppression costs but fully restore the ecosystem in more than half of the simulation runs, which lowers the need for future fire suppression and reduces the chance of conversion to nonforest, alternative stable states. We find that the choice between hazardous fuel reduction and ecological treatments will depend on the management objective being pursued, as well as on site-specific factors such as the wildfire return interval and the economic value of biomass removed.
 Stoddard Five-year post-restoration conditions and simulated climate-change trajectories in a warm/dry mixed-conifer forest, southwestern Colorado, USA
by M T Stoddard, A J Sánchez Meador, P Z Fulé, and J E Korb
Abstract: Some warm/dry mixed-conifer forests are at increasing risk of uncharacteristically large, high-severity fires. As a result, managers have begun ecological restoration efforts using treatments such as mechanical thinning and prescribed fire. Empirical information on the long-term impacts of these treatments is limited, especially in light of potential climate change. We assessed changes in forest structure and composition five-years following three alternative restoration treatments in a warm/dry mixed-conifer forest: (1) thin/burn, (2) prescribe burn, and (3) control. We used the Climate-Forest Vegetation Simulator (Climate-FVS) model to quantify potential forest trajectories under alternative climate scenarios. Five years following treatments, changes in forest structure were similar to initial post-treatment conditions, with thin/burn being the only treatment to shift and maintain forest structure and composition within historical reference conditions. By 2013, the thin/burn had reduced basal area (11.3 m2 ha-1) and tree density (117.2 tree ha-1) by 56% and 79% respectively, compared to pre-treatment values. In the burn, basal area (20.5 m2 ha-1) and tree density (316.6 tree ha-1) was reduced by 20% and 35% respectively, from 2002 to 2013. Mortality of large ponderosa pine trees (the most fire-resistant species) throughout the duration of the experiment, averaged 6% in the burn compared to 16% in the thin/burn treatment. Changes five years following treatments were largely due to increases in sprouting species. Shrub and sapling densities were approximately two to three times higher (respectively) in the thin/burn compared to burn and control and dominated by sprouting oak and aspen. Under climate simulations, the thin/burn was more resilient in maintaining forest conditions compared to burn and control which approached meager forest conditions (3–4 m2 ha-1). These results indicate that restoration treatment that include both thinning and burning can maintain forest integrity over the next few decades.
 Tuten Ecological restoration and fine-scale forest structure regulation in southwestern ponderosa pine forests
by M C. Tuten, A J Sánchez Meador, and P Z. Fulé
Abstract: Fine-scale forest patterns are an important component of forest ecosystem complexity and spatial pattern objectives are an increasingly common component of contemporary silviculture prescriptions in dry fire-adapted forests of North America. Despite their importance, questions remain regarding the assessment of silvicultural treatments designed to meet spatial objectives. We initiated a replicated silvicultural assessment of two forest management approaches commonly applied in dense ponderosa pine forests of the Southwest United States: historical evidence-based ecological restoration guidelines (ERG) and northern goshawk (Accipiter gentilis) foraging area management recommendations (GMR). We compared stand-level characteristics, global tree location point patterns and tree group-level attributes resulting from the marking of these approaches to current forest conditions and patterns of historical forest remnants in six, 2.02 ha stem mapped plots. We also assessed group-level Vegetative Structural Stage (VSS; a classification of fine-scale forest structural development used to regulate fine-scale spatial patterns in these forests). ERG and GMR-based treatments significantly reduced densities and basal area from the current condition, but did not significantly differ in density from historical forest remnant estimates. GMR-based treatments retained greater stand level basal area than ERG-based treatments, primarily in large, 28–48 cm tree diameter classes. GMR-based treatments approximated global tree location point patterns of forest remnants better than ERG-based treatments, primarily due to a 5–6 m minimum spacing of residual trees, but also likely due to specific aspects of ERG-based marking techniques. Despite this difference, both treatments resulted in group-level characteristics similar to those exhibited by historical forest remnants. Both treatments significantly altered group-level VSS area and reduced variation of tree diameters within classified VSS groups.
 Outzs Post-fire ponderosa pine regeneration with and without planting in Arizona and New Mexico
by J Ouzts, T Kolb, D Huffman, A J Sánchez Meador
Abstract: Forest fires are increasing in size and severity globally, yet the roles of natural and artificial regeneration in promoting forest recovery are poorly understood. Post-fire regeneration of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa, Lawson and C. Lawson) in the southwestern U.S. is slow, episodic, and difficult to predict. Planting of ponderosa pine after wildfire may accelerate reforestation, but little is known about survival of plantings and the amount of post-fire natural regeneration. We compared ponderosa pine regeneration between paired planted and unplanted plots at eight sites in Arizona and New Mexico that recently (2002– 2005) burned severely. Two sites had no natural regeneration and no survival of planted seedlings. Seedling presence increased with number of years since burning across all plots, was positively associated with forb and litter cover on planted plots, and was positively associated with litter cover on unplanted plots. Survival of planted seedlings, measured five to eight years after planting, averaged 25% (SE = 8) and varied from 0% to 70% across sites resulting in seedling densities of 0–521 trees ha-1. Based on a projected 44% survival of seedlings to mature trees and target density of mature trees determined by historical range of variability and ecological restoration principles, four of eight sites have a seedling density in planted plots (125–240 ha-1) that will produce a density of mature trees (55–106 ha-1) close to desired levels, whereas seedlings are currently deficient at three planted sites, and in surplus at one site, which had abundant natural regeneration. Natural regeneration in unplanted plots during the first decade after burning produced seedling densities inconsistent with desired numbers of mature trees. Natural regeneration in unplanted plots produced less than 33 seedlings ha-1 at seven of eight sites, but produced 1433 seedlings ha-1 at one high-elevation site that supported a more mesic vegetation community before burning than the other sites. Our results show that current practices for planting ponderosa pine after severe fires in Arizona and New Mexico produce desired numbers of seedlings in approximately half of all projects, whereas natural regeneration rarely does within the first decade after burning.

 

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What happens when you lock several economist in a room?

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Last year, the Office of Wildland Fire in the Department of Interior requested that the Ecological Restoration Institute at Northern Arizona University analyze available information and provide insights into wildland fire economics and fuel treatment eeffectiveness. Somehow, I was dragged into it and this is one of the resulting products associated with that endeavor…

 

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